Saltwater intrusion and declining water levels have been a water-supply problem in Cape May County, New Jersey, for decades. Cape May County is surrounded by saltwater on three sides. Several communities in the county have only one aquifer from which freshwater withdrawals can be made, and that sole source is threatened by saltwater intrusion and (or) substantial declines in water levels caused by groundwater withdrawals. Growth of the year-round and summer tourism populations have caused water demand for some purveyors to approach the full-allocation withdrawal rates set by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, leading these purveyors to request increases in allocations. Simulated water levels resulting from withdrawals including proposed increases in allocations by four purveyors and a shift of some withdrawals from one aquifer to another by a fifth purveyor were compared to simulated baseline water levels with withdrawals at 2012 full-allocation rates.

The Lower Township Scenario simulates proposed full-allocation withdrawals of 1,079 million gallons per year (Mgal/yr) from the Cohansey aquifer, 211 Mgal/yr (24 percent) higher than the 2012 full allocation withdrawals. Lower Township Scenario simulated water levels are between 2 and 4 feet (ft) lower than those of the shallow-aquifer-system Baseline Scenario simulation in much of Lower Township. The simulated 250-milligrams per liter (mg/L) isochlor is a maximum of 750 ft farther eastward than the simulated position in the shallow-aquifer-system Baseline Scenario, and the isochlor is simulated to be 700 ft from the northwestern-most Lower Township Municipal Utility Authority well at the airport in 2050.

The Wildwood Scenario simulates proposed full-allocation withdrawals of 388 Mgal/yr at the Wildwood Water Utility Rio Grande well field in Middle Township from the Rio Grande water-bearing zone (upper Kirkwood Formation) and 776 Mgal/yr from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand (lower Kirkwood Formation). Simulated water levels in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand near the well field are 30–55 ft lower than in the deep-aquifer-system Baseline Scenario, more than 15 ft lower south and west of Cape May Court House, and 5–10 ft lower between Cape May Court House and Woodbine and Upper Township.

The Avalon Scenario simulates proposed full-allocation withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in Avalon Borough of 495 Mgal/yr, which is 141 Mgal/yr (40 percent) higher than the 2012 full-allocation withdrawals. The Cape May Court House Scenario simulates proposed full-allocation withdrawals near Cape May Court House from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of 495 Mgal/yr, which is 150 Mgal/yr (64 percent) higher than 2012 full-allocation withdrawals. The Strathmere Scenario simulates proposed full-allocation withdrawals in Strathmere from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of 30 Mgal/yr, which is 11 Mgal/yr (58 percent) higher than 2012 full-allocation withdrawals. All three of these scenarios generally show simulated water levels to be less than 10 ft lower compared to the deep-aquifer-system Baseline Scenario.

The Combined Scenario simulates proposed full-allocation withdrawals, including increased withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in all four locations—the Rio Grande well field, Avalon, Cape May Court House, and Strathmere. Water levels from the Combined Scenario are 40–65 ft lower than those from the deep-aquifer-system Baseline Scenario near the Wildwood Water Utility Rio Grande well field, 15–40 ft lower south of Dennis Township, and 5–15 ft lower in much of the rest of Cape May County.