Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake
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Abstract
The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.
Publication type | Article |
---|---|
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Title | Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake |
Series title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
DOI | 10.1785/BSSA0840030892 |
Volume | 84 |
Issue | 3 |
Year Published | 1994 |
Language | English |
Publisher | Seismological Society of America |
Description | 8 p. |
First page | 892 |
Last page | 899 |
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