The ShakeOut earthquake source and ground motion simulations

Earthquake Spectra
By: , and 



The ShakeOut Scenario is premised upon the detailed description of a hypothetical Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault and the associated simulated ground motions. The main features of the scenario, such as its endpoints, magnitude, and gross slip distribution, were defined through expert opinion and incorporated information from many previous studies. Slip at smaller length scales, rupture speed, and rise time were constrained using empirical relationships and experience gained from previous strong-motion modeling. Using this rupture description and a 3-D model of the crust, broadband ground motions were computed over a large region of Southern California. The largest simulated peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) generally range from 0.5 to 1.0 g and 100 to 250 cm/s, respectively, with the waveforms exhibiting strong directivity and basin effects. Use of a slip-predictable model results in a high static stress drop event and produces ground motions somewhat higher than median level predictions from NGA ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs).
Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title The ShakeOut earthquake source and ground motion simulations
Series title Earthquake Spectra
DOI 10.1193/1.3570677
Volume 27
Issue 2
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher EERI
Publisher location Oakland, CA
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description 19 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Earthquake Spectra
First page 273
Last page 291
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