An empirical method to forecast the effect of storm intensity on shallow landslide abundance
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Abstract
We hypothesize that the number of shallow landslides a storm triggers in a landscape increases with rainfall intensity, duration and the number of unstable model cells for a given shallow landslide susceptibility model of that landscape. For selected areas in California, USA, we use digital maps of historic shallow landslides with adjacent rainfall records to construct a relation between rainfall intensity and the fraction of unstable model cells that actually failed in historic storms. We find that this fraction increases as a power law with the 6-hour rainfall intensity for sites in southern California. We use this relation to forecast shallow landslide abundance for a dynamic numerical simulation storm for California, representing the most extreme historic storms known to have impacted the state.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | An empirical method to forecast the effect of storm intensity on shallow landslide abundance |
| Series title | Italian Journal of Engineering Geology and Environment |
| DOI | 10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-110 |
| Year Published | 2011 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Sapienza Università di Roma |
| Contributing office(s) | Geology and Geophysics Science Center |
| Description | 10 p. |
| First page | 1013 |
| Last page | 1022 |
| Conference Title | 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment |
| Conference Location | Padua, Italy |
| Conference Date | June 14-17, 2011 |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
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