Appendix A: other methods for estimating trends of Arctic birds

By: , and 
Edited by: Jonathan Bart and Victoria Johnston



The Arctic PRISM was designed to determine shorebird population size and trend. During an extensive peer review of PRISM, some reviewers suggested that measuring demographic rates or monitoring shorebirds on migration would be more appropriate than estimating population size on the breeding grounds. However, each method has its own limitations. For demographic monitoring, an unbiased estimate based on a large sample of first-year survivorship would be extremely difficult for shorebirds in the arctic because the needed sample size would be unobtainable (in Canada at least) and the level of effort that would need to be expended (both financial and human resource-wise) would far exceed that of the current Arctic PRISM methodology. For migration monitoring, issues such as changes in use of monitored to non-monitored sites, residency times, and detection rates introduce bias that has not yet been resolved. While we believe demographic and migration monitoring are very valuable and are already components of the PRISM approach (e.g., Tier 2 sites focus on the collection of demographic data), we do not believe that either is likely to achieve the PRISM accuracy target of an 80% power to detect a 50% decline.

Additional publication details

Publication type Book chapter
Publication Subtype Book Chapter
Title Appendix A: other methods for estimating trends of Arctic birds
Volume 44
Year Published 2012
Language English
Publisher University of California Press
Publisher location Berkeley, CA
Contributing office(s) Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
Description 7 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Monograph
Larger Work Title Arctic shorebirds in North America: a decade of monitoring
First page 245
Last page 251
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N