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Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

By: , and 
Edited by: Helmut Mader and Julia Kraml

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Abstract

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty
Year Published 2012
Language English
Contributing office(s) Columbia Environmental Research Center
Description 8 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title 9th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics 2012 Proceedings
Country United States
Other Geospatial Missouri River