Using climate data to predict grizzly bear litter size
Bears: Their Biology and Management
By: Harold D. Picton and Richard R. Knight
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Abstract
A 5-year double-bind test was conducted to test the predictive capability of a previously published (Picton 1978) regression (Y= 2.01 + 0.042x), which described the relationship between the littler size of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) and an index of climate plus carrion availability (climate-carrion index). This regression showed an efficient in excess of 99% in predicting the observed grizzly bear littler size. The predictions made using the climate-carrion index had a mean absolute error of less than 25% of forecasts using other methods. The updated climate-carrion index regression, which includes all of the 16 years for which data are available, is Y= 2.009 + 0.042x (r = 0.078; P < 0.01; N = 16). We concluded that the climate-carrion index can be a helpful tool in predicting grizzly bear littler size. The relation of this information to the effects of the closure of Yellowstone Park garbage dumps is discussed.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Using climate data to predict grizzly bear litter size |
| Series title | Bears: Their Biology and Management |
| DOI | 10.2307/3872804 |
| Volume | 6 |
| Year Published | 1986 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | International Association for Bear Research and Management |
| Publisher location | New York, NY |
| Description | 4 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Bears: Their Biology and Management |
| First page | 41 |
| Last page | 44 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |