Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa

Remote Sensing of Environment
By:  and 



Early warning systems (EWS) tend to focus on the identification of slow onset disasters such famine and epidemic disease. Since hazardous environmental conditions often precede disastrous outcomes by many months, effective monitoring via satellite and in situ observations can successfully guide mitigation activities. Accurate short term forecasts of NDVI could increase lead times, making early warning earlier. This paper presents a simple empirical model for making 1 to 4 month NDVI projections. These statistical projections are based on parameterized satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) and relative humidity demand (RHD). A quasi-global, 1 month ahead, 1° study demonstrates reasonable accuracies in many semi-arid regions. In Africa, a 0.1° cross-validated skill assessment quantifies the technique's applicability at 1 to 4 month forecast intervals. These results suggest that useful projections can be made over many semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa, with plausible extensions to drought prone areas of Asia, Australia and South America.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa
Series title Remote Sensing of Environment
DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2005.12.014
Volume 101
Issue 2
Year Published 2006
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 8 p.
First page 249
Last page 256
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N