Using landscape epidemiological models to understand the distribution of chronic wasting disease in the Midwestern USA

Landscape Ecology
By: , and 

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Abstract

Animal movement across the landscape plays a critical role in the ecology of infectious wildlife diseases. Dispersing animals can spread pathogens between infected areas and naïve populations. While tracking free-ranging animals over the geographic scales relevant to landscape-level disease management is challenging, landscape features that influence gene flow among wildlife populations may also influence the contact rates and disease spread between populations. We used spatial diffusion and barriers to white-tailed deer gene flow, identified through landscape genetics, to model the distribution of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the infected region of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, USA. Our generalized linear model showed that risk of CWD infection declined exponentially with distance from current outbreaks, and inclusion of gene flow barriers dramatically improved fit and predictive power of the model. Our results indicate that CWD is spreading across the Midwestern landscape from these two endemic foci, but spread is strongly influenced by highways and rivers that also reduce deer gene flow. We used our model to plot a risk map, providing important information for CWD management by identifying likely routes of disease spread and providing a tool for prioritizing disease monitoring and containment efforts. The current analysis may serve as a framework for modeling future disease risk drawing on genetic information to investigate barriers to spread and extending management and monitoring beyond currently affected regions.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Using landscape epidemiological models to understand the distribution of chronic wasting disease in the Midwestern USA
Series title Landscape Ecology
DOI 10.1007/s10980-013-9919-4
Volume 28
Issue 10
Year Published 2013
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Leetown
Description 13 p.
First page 1923
Last page 1935