State-and-transition models: Conceptual versus simulation perspectives, usefulness and breadth of use, and land management applications

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Abstract

State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling (STSM) is a quantitative analysis method that can consolidate a wide array of resource management issues under a “what-if” scenario exercise. STSM can be seen as an ensemble of models, such as climate models, ecological models, and economic models that incorporate human dimensions and management options. This chapter presents STSM as a tool to help synthesize information on social–ecological systems and to investigate some of the management issues associated with exotic annual Bromus species, which have been described elsewhere in this book. Definitions, terminology, and perspectives on conceptual and computer-simulated stochastic state-and-transition models are given first, followed by a brief review of past STSM studies relevant to the management of Bromus species. A detailed case study illustrates the usefulness of STSM for land management. As a whole, this chapter is intended to demonstrate how STSM can help both managers and scientists: (a) determine efficient resource allocation for monitoring nonnative grasses; (b) evaluate sources of uncertainty in model simulation results involving expert opinion, and their consequences for management decisions; and (c) provide insight into the consequences of predicted local climate change effects on ecological systems invaded by exotic annual Bromus species.

Additional publication details

Publication type Book chapter
Publication Subtype Book Chapter
Title State-and-transition models: Conceptual versus simulation perspectives, usefulness and breadth of use, and land management applications
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-24930-8_13
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) North Central Climate Science Center
Description 37 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Title Exotic brome-grasses in arid and semiarid ecosystems of the western US
First page 371
Last page 407