Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

North American Journal of Fisheries Management
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Abstract

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations
Series title North American Journal of Fisheries Management
DOI 10.1002/nafm.10051
Volume 38
Issue 2
Year Published 2018
Language English
Publisher Wiley
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Leetown
Description 9 p.
First page 493
Last page 501
Country United States
State Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia
Other Geospatial Allegheny River, Delaware River, Juniata River, Potomac River. Susquehanna River