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Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

By:
ORCID iD , , , and
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0002

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Abstract

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

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Additional publication details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change
Series title:
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
DOI:
10.1139/cjfas-2018-0002
Edition:
Online First
Year Published:
2018
Language:
English
Publisher:
Canadian Science Publishing
Contributing office(s):
Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center
Country:
United States