Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information

Ecosphere
By: , and 

Links

Abstract

Understanding invasive species distributions and potential invasions often requires broad‐scale information on the environmental tolerances of the species. Further, resource managers are often faced with knowing these broad‐scale relationships as well as nuanced environmental factors related to their landscape that influence where an invasive species occurs and potentially could occur. Using invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), we developed global models and local models for Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA, based on location records and literature on physiological tolerances to environmental factors to investigate whether environmental relationships of a species at a global scale are also important at local scales. In addition to correlative models with five commonly used algorithms, we also developed a model using a priori user‐defined relationships between occurrence and environmental characteristics based on a literature review. All correlative models at both scales performed well based on statistical evaluations. The user‐defined curves closely matched those produced by the correlative models, indicating that the correlative models may be capturing mechanisms driving the distribution of buffelgrass. Given climate projections for the region, both global and local models indicate that conditions at Saguaro National Park may become more suitable for buffelgrass. Combining global and local data with correlative models and physiological information provided a holistic approach to forecasting invasive species distributions.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information
Series title Ecosphere
DOI 10.1002/ecs2.2279
Volume 9
Issue 5
Year Published 2018
Language English
Publisher Ecological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Fort Collins Science Center
Description e02279; 12 p.
First page 1
Last page 12
Country United States
State Arizona
Other Geospatial Saguaro National Park