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ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations

Natural Hazards

By:
, , ORCID iD , , , and
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3248-5

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Abstract

In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide. The probability of occurrence of such earthquake-induced effects is modelled through a set of geospatial susceptibility proxies and peak ground acceleration. The predictive model is tuned to capture the observations from past events and optimised for near-real-time estimates based on USGS-style ShakeMaps routinely produced by the Swiss Seismological Service. Our emphasis is on the use of high-resolution geospatial datasets along with additional local information on ground failure susceptibility. Even if calibrated on historic events with moderate magnitudes, the methodology presented in this paper yields sensible results also for low-magnitude recent events. The model is integrated in the Swiss ShakeMap framework. This study has a high practical relevance to many Swiss ShakeMap stakeholders, especially those managing lifeline systems, and to other global users interested in conducting a similar customisation for their region of interest.

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Additional publication details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations
Series title:
Natural Hazards
DOI:
10.1007/s11069-018-3248-5
Volume:
92
Issue:
2
Year Published:
2018
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer
Contributing office(s):
Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description:
25 p.
First page:
1211
Last page:
1235
Country:
Switzerland