Groundwater inflow toward a preheated volcanic conduit: Application to the 2018 eruption at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i

Journal of Geophysical Research
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Abstract

The many successes in volcano forecasting over the past several decades owe mainly to pattern recognition, both in monitoring data and the geologic record. During the early stages of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption, the conceptual model of Stearns (1925), based on the explosive 1924 Kīlauea eruption, was highly influential. This model postulates that explosions are triggered by liquid-water inflow into a recently vacated magma conduit. Modern quantitative modeling approaches, supplemented by hydrogeologic data unavailable in 1925, yield a more nuanced view. Results demonstrate that liquid-water inflow would likely be delayed by months to years, owing to the inability of liquid water to transit a zone of very hot rock surrounding the conduit. The exercise demonstrates the use of physically based modeling to supplement traditional volcano-forecasting approaches during an ongoing event.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Groundwater inflow toward a preheated volcanic conduit: Application to the 2018 eruption at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i
Series title Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI 10.1029/2018JB017133
Volume 124
Issue 2
Year Published 2019
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Volcano Science Center
Description 9 p.
First page 1498
Last page 1506
Country United States
State Hawaii
Other Geospatial Kilauea Volcano