Ensemble estimation of historical evapotranspiration for the conterminous U.S.

Water Resources Research
By: , and 

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Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall-to-wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS-wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national-scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Ensemble estimation of historical evapotranspiration for the conterminous U.S.
Series title Water Resources Research
DOI 10.1029/2022WR034012
Volume 59
Issue 6
Year Published 2023
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) WMA - Observing Systems Division
Description e2022WR034012, 23 p.
Country United States
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