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Modeling non-structural strategies to reduce pedestrian evacuation times for mitigating local tsunami threats in Guam

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
By: , , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103859

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Abstract

Reducing the potential for loss of life from local tsunamis is challenging for emergency managers given the need for self-protective behavior of at-risk individuals within brief windows of time to evacuate. There has been considerable attention paid to discussing the use of tsunami vertical-evacuation structures for areas where there may be insufficient time to evacuate. This strategy may not be feasible or needed for at-risk populations in island communities for multiple reasons. We examine the influence of three non-structural interventions (reducing departure delays, increasing travel speeds, and managing vegetation to create new paths) that may improve the evacuation potential for at-risk individuals in island communities and use the United States territory of Guam as our case study. We model pedestrian travel times out of a modeled inundation zone for a local tsunami generated by a Mw 8.3 earthquake within the Mariana subduction zone. Evacuation-modeling results indicate that reducing departure delays has a larger impact than increasing travel speeds or creating evacuation corridors through heavy brush on reducing the number of at-risk individuals with insufficient time to evacuate. Travel times to safety are less than wave-arrival times for almost all at-risk individuals in the tsunami-hazard zone if one assumes all three interventions are implemented.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Modeling non-structural strategies to reduce pedestrian evacuation times for mitigating local tsunami threats in Guam
Series title International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
DOI 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103859
Volume 95
Year Published 2023
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Western Geographic Science Center
Description 103859, 13 p.
Country United States
Other Geospatial Guam
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