thumbnail

Design and calibration of a nitrate decision support tool for groundwater wells in Wisconsin, USA

Environmental Modeling and Software,
By: , , , , , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.105999

Links

Abstract

This paper describes development of a nitrate decision support tool for groundwater wells (GW-NDST) that combines nitrate leaching and groundwater lag-times to compute well concentrations. The GW-NDST uses output from support models that simulate leached nitrate, groundwater age distributions, and nitrate reduction rates. The support models are linked through convolution to simulate nitrate transport to wells. Spatially distributed parameters were adjusted through calibration to 34,255 nitrate sample targets. Prediction uncertainty is illustrated via Monte Carlo realizations informed during calibration. Over 78% of target concentrations were within the simulated range of results from 450 realizations. An example forecasting scenario illustrates that a range of feasible outcomes exist and should be considered when interpreting forecasts for decision making. Uncertainty in forecasting is unavoidable; the intent of characterizing uncertainty in the GW-NDST is to facilitate decision making by increasing insight into the response of nitrate contamination to physical and chemical processes.

    Study Area

    Publication type Article
    Publication Subtype Journal Article
    Title Design and calibration of a nitrate decision support tool for groundwater wells in Wisconsin, USA
    Series title Environmental Modeling and Software,
    DOI 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.105999
    Volume 176
    Year Published 2024
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier
    Contributing office(s) Upper Midwest Water Science Center
    Description 105999, 16 p.
    Country United States
    State Wisconsin
    Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
    Additional publication details