Forecasting California's earthquakes: What can we expect in the next 30 years?
Fact Sheet 2008-3027
Prepared in cooperation with the California Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center
- Edward H. Field , Kevin R. Milner , and The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
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In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%?such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California?s future.
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- USGS Numbered Series
- Forecasting California's earthquakes: What can we expect in the next 30 years?
- Series title:
- Fact Sheet
- Series number:
- Version 1.0, Supersedes FS 152-99 and 039-03
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- U.S. Geological Survey
- Contributing office(s):
- Earthquake Hazards Program
- 4 p.
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