Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
Fact Sheet 2016-3020
- Brad T. Aagaard, James Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, and Jeanne S. DiLeo
- Edited by:
- Kate Jacques and Carolyn Donlin
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.
Aagaard, B.T., Blair, J.L., Boatwright, J., Garcia, S.H., Harris, R.A., Michael, A.J., Schwartz, D.P., and DiLeo, J.S., 2016, Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043 (ver. 1.1, August 2016): U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2016–3020, 6 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20163020.
ISSN: 2327-6932 (online)
ISSN: 2327-6916 (print)
Table of Contents
- Earthquake Preparedness Helps
- Why Does the San Francisco Bay Region Have Earthquakes?
- How Do Scientists Calculate Earthquake Probability?
- Probabilities of Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region
- What is the Likelihood That an Earthquake Will Affect You?
- How Can You Protect Yourself and Your Family?
Additional publication details
- Publication type:
- Publication Subtype:
- USGS Numbered Series
- Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
- Series title:
- Fact Sheet
- Series number:
- Year Published:
- U.S. Geological Survey
- Publisher location:
- Reston, VA
- Contributing office(s):
- Earthquake Science Center
- 6 p.
- United States
- Other Geospatial:
- San Francisco Bay
- Online Only (Y/N):
- Additional Online Files (Y/N):