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Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

By:  and 
Edited by: Shen Hsieh WenSu S.T.Wen Feng

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Abstract

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

Additional publication details

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Time-dependent landslide probability mapping
ISBN 0872629201
Issue pt 2
Year Published 1993
Language English
Publisher Publ by ASCE
Publisher location New York, NY, United States
Larger Work Title Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering
First page 1902
Last page 1907
Conference Title Proceedings of the National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering
Conference Location San Francisco, CA, USA
Conference Date 25 July 1993 through 30 July 1993
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