Time-dependent landslide probability mapping
By: Russell H. Campbell and Richard L. Bernknopf
Edited by: Shen Hsieh WenSu S.T.Wen Feng
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Abstract
Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Time-dependent landslide probability mapping |
| ISBN | 0872629201 |
| Issue | pt 2 |
| Year Published | 1993 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Publ by ASCE |
| Publisher location | New York, NY, United States |
| Larger Work Title | Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering |
| First page | 1902 |
| Last page | 1907 |
| Conference Title | Proceedings of the National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering |
| Conference Location | San Francisco, CA, USA |
| Conference Date | 25 July 1993 through 30 July 1993 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |