Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

By: , and 

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Abstract

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

Additional publication details

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges
DOI 10.6084/m9.figshare.4715317
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher National Ecological Observatory Network
Publisher location Fort Collins, CO
Contributing office(s) National Research Program - Eastern Branch
Description 71 p.
Conference Title NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasting
Conference Date January 6-8, 2016