Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

Open-File Report 2016-1106
By: , and 

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Abstract

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

Suggested Citation

Staley, D.M., Negri, J.A., Kean, J.W., Laber, J.M., Tillery, A.C., and Youberg, A.M., 2016, Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1106, 13 p., http://dx.doi.org/ofr20161106.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Methods
  • Results
  • Conclusions
  • Acknowledgments
  • References Cited
  • Appendix 1

Additional publication details

Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2016-1106
DOI 10.3133/ofr20161106
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description Report: iv, 13 p.; Appendix 1
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) Y