Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States
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- Document: Report (1.73 MB pdf)
- Appendix: Appendix 1 (268 kB xlsx)
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Abstract
Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.
Suggested Citation
Staley, D.M., Negri, J.A., Kean, J.W., Laber, J.M., Tillery, A.C., and Youberg, A.M., 2016, Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1106, 13 p., http://dx.doi.org/ofr20161106.
ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)
Table of Contents
- Abstract
- Introduction
- Methods
- Results
- Conclusions
- Acknowledgments
- References Cited
- Appendix 1
Publication type | Report |
---|---|
Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
Title | Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States |
Series title | Open-File Report |
Series number | 2016-1106 |
DOI | 10.3133/ofr20161106 |
Year Published | 2016 |
Language | English |
Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
Publisher location | Reston, VA |
Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
Description | Report: iv, 13 p.; Appendix 1 |
Online Only (Y/N) | Y |
Additional Online Files (Y/N) | Y |
Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |